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ESSENCE And METHODS of the ESTIMATION of ECONOMIC SAFETY  | ESSENCE And METHODS of the ESTIMATION of ECONOMIC SAFETY
Last years the increasing attention began to be paid a problem of economic safety. Economic safety is considered(examined) not only at a level of the country (it is the most investigated area), but also at a level of region (it is known G.V.Gutmana's works, J.N.Lapygina, A.I.Prilepskogo, and also the Ural scientists: A.I.Tatarkina, A.A.Kuklina, D.S.Lvov etc.), the enterprises, persons.
Despite of a relative level of scrutiny of a question of economic safety of the country of uniform understanding of essence of the given phenomenon is not present. So academician L.I.Abalkin defines(determines) economic safety as " set of conditions and the factors providing independence of national economy, its(her) stability and stability, ability to constant updating and self-improvement ".
G.V.Gutman. J.N.Lapygin and A.I.Prilepsky mark, that safety this certain condition of economy and can not be " set of conditions and factors ", and for more exact characteristic of economic safety result the definition given by academician V.K.Senchagovym: " … it not only security of national interests, but also readiness and ability of institutes of authority to create mechanisms of realization and protection of national interests of development of domestic economy, maintenance of sociopolitical stability of a society ".
As a whole economic safety can be defined(determined) as a condition of security of economic interests of the subject (the state, region, the enterprise, the person) from external and internal negative influences (threats).
Recognizing that to economy the basic role in development of a society and the state belongs, problems of economic safety are considered(examined) not only in actually economic sphere, but also in the field of its(her) crossing with other, noneconomic fields of activity: social and economic, military-economic, maintenance of public safety, sphere of protection of the intellectual property and scientific and technical potential, interaction of economy and preservation of the environment etc.
Economic safety can be provided both economic methods, and means of not economic character: political, military. Substantially safety in noneconomic spheres depends on use of various economic means (for example, attraction of monetary resources). Besides, using economic tools at an estimation of consequences of threats of safety in any field of activity, quantitatively it is possible to define(determine) damage and accordingly to allocate priority directions of distribution of resources (on the basis of the given approach the technique of definition of a level of economic safety of the enterprise is constructed, L.P.Goncharenko stated in the manual).
The following mainframes of problems of economic safety are allocated:
the Problems connected to preservation and maintenance of an economic complex of the country;
the Problems connected to maintenance of functioning of economy in conditions of extreme situations;
Military-economic problems;
the Problems connected to transformation of attitudes(relations) of the property;
Economic problems of interaction with an external world.
For definition of a level of economic safety (the countries or region) are used various methods. Is integrated them it is possible to present as 4 groups:
1. Supervision of the basic macroeconomic parameters and their comparison with threshold values (in particular, the given method was used by S.Glaz'evym).
2. A method of an expert estimation for ranzhirovanija territories on a level of threats (it was applied by the Ural scientists to definition of a level of economic safety of the Ural region).
3. An estimation of rates of economic growth of the country on the basic macroeconomic parameters and dynamics(changes) of their changes.
4. Methods of applied mathematics and, in particular, the multivariate statistical analysis.
The basic problem at use of a method of supervision of the basic macroeconomic parameters is allocation of those parameters which comparison with threshold values will allow to state a complex estimation of a condition of a national economy to reveal objective dangerous tendencies (for example, S.Glaz'ev in the technique has allocated 22 basic parameters. Among them: gross national product, a share of a manufacturing industry in industrial production, volumes of investments in % to gross national product, charges on scientific researches, life expectancy of the population, a rate of unemployment, a rate of inflation, volume of the external and internal debt etc.).
Methods of an expert estimation are widely enough used. So, on their basis the estimation of an integrated parameter of reliability of the country (English magazine " Euromoney ") or an estimation stranovogo risk will be carried out(spent).
It is necessary to note, that while there are no conventional methods of an estimation of economic safety. " Necessity of application of the strict mathematical device appreciablly limits number of parameters which can be used. It is far from being all parameters of economic safety can be expressed in the quantitative form. … But application of the multivariate approach allows to see those parties(sides) of the phenomenon with which it is difficult to open, leaning(basing) on one - two even the most important a parameter ".
Thus, maintenance of economic safety - " is a guarantee of independence of the country, a condition of stability and effective ability to live of a society, achievement of success. … Therefore maintenance of economic safety belongs to number of the major national priorities ".
EZERSKAJA this year.
MMTS "Ivanovo - Moscow"
The post-graduate student of the Ivanovo State University
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